April 17, 2015
SUNDARBAN
TIGER RESERVE, India (AP) — At first, the numbers seem impressive:
India's tiger population has gone up 30 percent in just four years. The
government lauded the news as astonishing evidence of victory in
conservation. But independent scientists say such an increase — to 2,226 big cats — in so short a time doesn't make sense.
They
worry an enthusiastic new government under Prime Minister Narendra Modi
is misinterpreting the numbers, trumpeting false claims of a thriving
tiger population that could hurt conservation in the long run. "The
circus is not necessary," said tiger expert K. Ullas Karanth, science
director for the Wildlife Conservation Society in Asia. "All of this
tom-tom'ing and arm-waving, claiming we've had stupendous success, is
ridiculous and unscientific."
The first numbers were released in January. Last week, the government offered details of the data.
Even
as scientists begged caution in presenting the count, India's
government doubled down.
Environment Minister Prakash Javadekar again
boasted of a 30 percent population increase. And Prime Minister Modi
rounded that up, saying tiger numbers had seen "about a 40 percent
increase. Feels good to hear it!"
If
only it were true. This census differs in an important way from earlier
tallies: It estimates India's entire wild tiger population, while
preceding counts focused only on cats in sanctuaries and reserves.
"I'd
prefer to say there are 30 percent more known tigers, rather than say
there is actually an increase in tigers. We might not have counted them
all earlier," said Anurag Danda of the World Wildlife Fund in the
Sundarbans, one of many groups that participated in the census.
A
30 percent increase within four years is implausible. Though tigers
have high birth rates, they also have high natural death rates, and
factors such as habitat loss and poaching haven't slowed. At least 110
tigers were killed in 2011-14, barely a drop from the 118 poached in
2007-10, according to the Wildlife Protection Society of India.
Globally,
experts believe the best that can be hoped for is a 50 percent increase
in the world population over 10 years — a much more modest rate of
growth. Such incongruities
have happened before. India claimed a 17 percent increase between 2006
and 2010, even while tiger habitats shrank by some 40 percent.
But
while Danda interprets the latest numbers more conservatively than some
government officials, he agrees they show that conservation efforts
appear to be working: "Otherwise, how come we have so many tigers
outside the tiger reserves?"
India
is by far the world leader in protecting tigers, spending more
resources and money than any other country. For decades it has faced
immense challenges, from habitat loss and human encroachment to
poaching, disease and pollution. Still, India manages to keep about 70
percent of the world's wild tigers on less than 25 percent of the
world's tiger habitat. That's partly a credit to its vast rural
population, which long ago learned to live in relative proximity to the
secretive beasts.
If
India can protect tigers, despite a human population 1.26 billion
strong, that proves any country can do it, conservationists say."But
they can't relax. And that's my biggest worry about this latest census
and the way it's being presented," said Alan Rabinowitz, head of
Panthera, a New York-based big-cat conservation group. "The worst
outcome of that is it allows development and business interests to say,
'We've been doing really well. We can pull back a bit.'"
Desperate
to develop its economy and alleviate widespread poverty, India faces
intense pressure to convert forests for roads or industrial use, or to
allow polluting factories or mining operations near forest reserves and
water supplies. Conservationists worry more of those projects will be
green-lighted around tiger habitats if the cats are seen to be thriving.
The government has already cut the Environment Ministry's 2015-16
budget by almost 25 percent, with funds for tiger conservation dropping
15 percent.
Over the
weekend, the Supreme Court allowed for the widening of a 10-kilometer
(7-mile) road between two tiger sanctuaries in central Madhya Pradesh —
work its own appointed committee warned would irreparably damage
critical wildlife habitat and invite heavy traffic that might mow the
animals down.
When India
says it now is home to 2,226 tigers, what it is giving is an estimate — a
best-guess based on a technique called index-calibration that combines
small-scale cat counts and, through complex calculations, extrapolates
them to a national total. Those counts are conducted by various groups —
forest rangers, independent scientists, tiger charities — through
various means, including photographing individual tigers and analyzing
tiger droppings and paw prints.
The
technique, which India adopted in 2006, is by no means perfect. An
Oxford-led study published in February by the journal Methods in Ecology
and Evolution suggested the data collection was too erratic for
adequately predicting cat populations in areas outside census
monitoring.
Scientists also
question the absence of independent oversight in the
government-organized census. And some say that one census every four
years is not enough. "The
criticism of the census is rubbish," said Rajesh Gopal, who headed the
government's National Tiger Conservation Authority from its beginning in
2006 until January, when he joined the Global Tiger Forum. "Out
of the 2,226 tigers estimated in this census, we have photographic
evidence for about 1,500 individuals, or 70 percent. And the statistical
models are state-of-the-art. The detractors are not being very fair,"
he said.
Gopal agreed,
however, that the government is overstating things by saying the overall
population had grown 30 percent. "These are just the numbers we know of
right now. We can't say anything beyond that."
Experts
praise India for maintaining corridors for the tigers to move between
sanctuaries and cracking down on poachers, including giving some state
forest rangers the right to shoot suspected poachers on sight.
Patrolling has improved in the country's 47 tiger reserves, covering
less than 2 percent of India's total land mass, or about 53,500 square
kilometers (20,700 square miles).
But
India could do more, scientists say, such as establishing prey
populations and anti-poaching patrols on some 300,000 square kilometers
(116,000 square miles) of unprotected forest that is otherwise suitable
as tiger habitat.
India's
greatest conservation strength may be its human population. Villagers
long ago learned to live alongside the predators and appreciate their
importance to maintaining order within an ecosystem — for example, by
keeping deer populations in check so they don't devour trees and plants.
Though they are among India's poorest people, many villagers would
sooner adjust their own behavior in the forests than see the big cats
disappear.
In the vast
deltas of the eastern Sundarbans region, Nepal Sardar wears two faces
while searching for honey — one trained to the trees and looking for
bees, the other painted on a mask strapped to the back of his head
staring down any tigers that might approach. The mask works, he
explains, because the stealthy tigers generally prefer to attack from
behind.
Another villager,
Anita Mondol, echoed many others in saying she lives in terror of tigers
roaming into villages and attacking livestock. The tigers will swim
kilometers between islands and ambush people on land. She worries one
might break through the woven-thatch roof of her hut, enter her home and
carry someone away. It has happened before to villagers she knows. She
is certain it will happen again.
Still,
"if it weren't for the tigers, there would be no forest," the
41-year-old said. "And with no forest, there would be no place for us.
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